As we already predicted on our blog in September 2005, Office 12 could slip well into 2007, which would postpone major migrations in 2008, knowing that most companies wait some time before they do such a crucial upgrade and that they will also have to deal with other Microsoft-related updates. In a research report, Gartner recommended companies to take a look at Office 12, but also at competitors such as IBM Workplace, which Gartner described as "far more real" today than Office 12.
6 months later, Office 12 has been officially renamed Office 2007, and this week, Microsoft had to admit that the new Office would indeed not be delivered before the end of this year (at least they have the name right). And not just Office, but also the release of their new operating system Vista was delayed until 2007. This delay is not only bad news for Microsoft, which subsequently reorganized its Platforms & Services Division, but also for the whole PC industry, as you can read in this eWeek Special Report, but also on the Mini-Microsoft Blog.
SmartHouse Magazine, Australia's number one lifestyle technology network, even reported that 60% of the code in Vista is set to be rewritten. While this is most likely not true, as Microsoft's Robert Scoble writes in his blog, this story was quickly picked up by many other blogs and magazines, and made it to the top of the Tech Web Frontpage.
While there will be some rewrites in Vista, particularly to support Microsoft's relatively new Live strategy and to align with the constant changes in Media Center, and while the delays will give Apple, Linux, OpenOffice, IBM, ... some advantage, one more change to the schedule was not unexpected, and may have less impact on Vista and Office 2007's than some want us to believe.
Follow up: SmartHouse Australia posted an update later this weekend that the marketing director of Acer Australia has confirmed that key elements of Windows Vista are currently being rewritten, in particular the Media Centre pieces to support Viiv. There is some background information on the author of these articles on Phil Sim's blog.
We assume that the 60% remark is about the Media Centre code, certainly not about the whole Vista code. We also think that Microsoft wants to use the extra 2 or 3 months to leverage its improved Xbox market position (greatly improved by the delay of Sony's PS3) and to launch an attack on Apple's highly successful iPod strategy. We also expect Microsoft to offer attractive Vista upgrades to Christmas shoppers of Vista-ready PC's. As such, we expect that Microsoft may even be capable to benefit from the Vista delay, instead of being hurt by this, as widely described in the blogosphere.
Update: Microsoft Corp. is working with hardware partners to prepare PC buyers for the release of Vista. Starting in May 2006, PCs with stickers saying "Windows Vista Capable" will be in stores, letting customers know what hardware can be upgraded to Vista once it is available... (Computerworld)